you forgot to add "more than a month" option
I think old method (jumpspl) might not be working any more, other wise it would be out by now. For example this fellow, who has never hacked a phone before, had hardspl ready in few days.
http://forum.xda-developers.com/show...=395133&page=2
I think oli and comnex already have the patched spl and they are looking for another exploit ( different way of loading hardspl ). So it could be tomorrow or it could be months or it could be never.